Packers @ Vikings, by the numbers

Just a few weeks ago, it seemed obvious that the NFL would pull this game from Sunday Night Football, but now it’s two weeks away and it will have major playoff implications for both teams. If Green Bay loses, they are, by all accounts, out of the playoffs, as they only have a 2% chance of missing them. If the Green Bay Packers win Minnesota and Chicago, they will approach 94%. Minnesota is in a similar position, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. Their losing percentage is just 3% and a win against Green Bay would make them a true 50/50.

Both teams have everything to play for, but they couldn’t be more different. So how do they compare? The Packers are once again a team fueled by their offense. Despite being extremely shaky early this season, Jordan Love ranks 9th in DVOA, DYAR and EPA per game. That was backed up by eight weeks of play where Love was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. In the last half of the season, Love finished third in DAKOTA (combined EPA and CPOE) behind Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott. He is fourth in EPA per game and fourth in Ben Baldwin’s CPOE model at 4.1%.

There were a lot of questions early on, but Green Bay seems to have found the answer at quarterback. Combining this with a cast of characters with rotating weapons makes it even more impressive. Aaron Jones has missed out most of the time and Christian Watson has been out for a few weeks. Luke Musgrave missed a lot of time. The list goes on, but the performance against New York has been a low point in recent months. These good passing attacks are accompanied by good and fairly aggressive defenses.

The Vikings have been ranked in the top 10 over the past eight weeks and on the season. Stylistically, Vikings is very unique. Very few people attack above 50%. The Vikings bring in plenty of extra bodies, but they don’t press at a particularly high rate. They are 11th in pressure produced percentage. They also don’t have a turnover rate higher than the league average, ranking 13th in the league. Where the raid severity comes from is allowed at aDOT, which is the 5th lowest in the league.

Sending more players on offense allows the offense to get the ball out quickly and relies on the secondary to fight in the open field, which has been a successful strategy so far this season. The defense most similar to Minnesota is the New York Giants (5.5)Bet $10 on NYGTo defeat LAR:$30.00Loss under 5.5:$19.52Loss:$14.08Jordan Love had more problems with him. The Packers’ season literally hinges on whether Love can carry the ball better and handle it more accurately against Minnesota than he did against New York.

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