If the Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears, they will earn the final available spot in the NFC playoffs.
That will be easier said than done. While the Packers (8-8) are 9-0 against the Bears under coach Matt LaFleur, Chicago has won four of its last five games.
“We know it’s going to be a tremendous challenge,” LaFleur said after his team demolished the Vikings on Sunday night. “I think Chicago is as improved as any team when you look at them from Week 1 to where they are now. Obviously, they’ve done a really, really good job the last few weeks in particular, kind of gotten on a roll.
“We know it’s going to be a great challenge, we know we’re going to get their best shot, and I’m sure they’d love nothing more than to knock us out of the playoffs.”
According to The New York Times computer simulator, the Packers have a 68 percent chance to reach the playoffs. With a win, that would move to 100 percent. With a loss, that would sink to 26 percent. From that perspective, the other pertinent games are Seattle (8-8) at Arizona (4-12), New Orleans (8-8) at home against Atlanta (7-9) and Tampa Bay (8-8) at Carolina (2-14).
Here are the sixth paths to the playoffs for the Packers.
One: Win and in. The Packers, for what it’s worth, are 3-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Monday night. The line was 3.5 earlier in the day.
Two: Green Bay tie, Seattle loss or tie and New Orleans loss or tie.
Three: Green Bay tie, Seattle loss and Tampa Bay loss.
Four: Green Bay tie, Seattle tie and Tampa Bay loss or tie.
Five: Minnesota loss or tie and Seattle loss and Tampa Bay loss.
Six: Minnesota loss or tie and Seattle loss and New Orleans loss.
Of note, based on the model at Playoff Status, the Packers have a 72 percent chance to reach the playoffs. Broken down, it’s 50 percent as the No. 6 seed (currently at No. 3 Detroit) and 22 percent as the No. 7 seed (currently at No. 2 Dallas).
To get to No. 6 would require the Rams (9-7) losing at the 49ers (12-4), who have earned the No. 1 seed and will not play star running back Christian McCaffrey.
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